Fear of the Future-ization of Swaps #1

The reform of the derivatives market, like other parts of financial reform, has been a very slow moving process. As when a giant ocean tanker is being slowly turned around, progress is so slow that it can be hard for the naked eye to confirm that the event is actually happening until the great ship’s silhouette overtakes a distinctive landmark on the horizon. And derivatives market reform, too, is happening. Each time the reform slowly approaches a new landmark on the horizon, the fact of reform is confirmed once again to proponents and opponents alike. And each time this happens, there are new howls from opponents that the ship’s current course will surely lead to disaster.

The current occasion for complaints goes under the heading “futurization of swaps.” Pre-reform, derivatives could either be traded in regulated marketplaces, generally called futures markets, or in the un-regulated marketplaces, generally called the OTC swaps market. The Dodd-Frank Act brought regulation to the OTC swaps market. Those regulations are only now beginning to take effect, or the deadlines are approaching. As that happens, companies on all sides of the derivatives markets are beginning to rethink where they should do their derivatives business. Should they continue to trade swaps, or can they get the same result using futures? Should they continue to market swaps, or should they now market futures? The swaps marketplace used to have the advantage of being unregulated, but as that advantage appears to be disappearing, where is the rationale for swaps? Derivative consumers and producers alike are giving the futures markets a fresh look. Some swap products have been relabeled and moved over to futures markets. Other, new futures products are being developed as substitutes for old swap products.

Obviously a major shift of business from the swaps market to futures markets threatens major business interests. Throughout the legislative battles leading up to Dodd-Frank, and the rulemaking and legislative battles surrounding implementation, the big banks that controlled and profited from the OTC swaps market hoped to preserve their monopoly. So far, they have mostly failed. The current debate about the ‘futurization of swaps’ is a major milestone in the process, and it is no surprise that it is raising new howls. These interests are complaining that the legislation is killing the swaps market, ruining a valuable financial innovation.

In the coming days, I will look at various arguments being made against the futurization of swaps. None of them hold up.

One Comment

  1. Posted November 12, 2012 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    Thank you for these posts. While your going over these arguments, would you mind explaining “swap futures” and how they work? I’m particularly confused by the new markets at the CME and ICE that would be futures until settlement, then be converted to swaps. How does that work and why would anyone want those products?

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